Pennsylvania COVID-19 Early Warning Monitoring Dashboard Update for Jan. 15-21: Case Increases Near 31,100; Percent Positivity at 10.5% and 66 Counties with Substantial Transmission
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The Wolf Administration today released a weekly status update detailing the state's mitigation efforts based on the COVID-19 Early Warning Monitoring System dashboard, highlighting a seven-day case increase of 31,140, a statewide percent positivity of 10.5% and 66 counties with substantial transmission status.

The update includes the following:
The dashboard is designed to provide early warning signs of factors that affect the state's mitigation efforts. The data available on the Early Warning Monitoring dashboard includes week-over-week case differences, incidence rates, test percent-positivity, and rates of hospitalizations, ventilations and emergency room visits tied to COVID-19. This week's update compares the period of January 15 – January 21 to the previous seven days, January 8 – January 14.

"After six straight weeks of all 67 counties reporting in the substantial level of transmission, we now have one county moving into the low level of transmission category – a great sign of progress," Gov. Wolf said. "But there is still more work for us to do and we must not become complacent. I believe we can keep up these best public health practices to continue to bring the transmission of COVID-19 down in our communities, keep each other safe, and move forward with rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine."

As of Thursday, January 21, the state has seen a seven-day case increase of 31,140 cases; the previous seven-day increase was 40,088 cases, indicating 8,948 fewer new cases across the state over the past week compared to the previous week.

The statewide percent-positivity went down to 10.5% from 12.7% last week. Every county in the state has a concerning percent positivity above 5 percent. This includes two counties with percent positivity at or above 20 percent, a decrease of two counties from the week before.

"The Department of Health continues to monitor all cases across Pennsylvania to best prevent outbreaks and mitigate the spread of COVID-19, but while we continue these efforts, we need residents to wear a mask, social distance, avoid gatherings and do the right thing to stop the spread," Acting Secretary of Health Alison Beam said. "Throughout the pandemic, the Wolf Administration has expanded resources and tools for residents. We encourage Pennsylvanians to download the COVID Alert PA app to receive exposure notification alerts and see data in the palm of your hand as well as using the newest vaccine eligibility tool as we continue to get vaccine into arms across the state."

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Community Transmission

As of Friday's data, 66 counties were in the https://www.education.pa.gov/Schools/safeschool..." rel="nofollow">substantial level of community transmission, the highest level of transmission.

There are three levels of transmission: low, moderate and substantial. For the week ending January 21, 66 counties were in the substantial level of transmission. Cameron County is only county to be in the low level of county transmission.

Cases Among 5-18-Year-Olds

The Department of Health is providing weekly data on the number of statewide cases of COVID-19 among 5 to 18-year-olds.

Throughout the pandemic, there have been 67,564 total cases of COVID-19 among 5 to 18-year-olds. Of that total, 4,143 occurred between January 15 – January 21. For the week of January 8 – January 15, there were 5,376 cases of COVID-19 among 5 to 18-year-olds.

Cases by https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/disease/corona...">demographic group is available on the DOH website.

Business Visits

The Department of Health is providing weekly data on the number of individuals who responded to case investigators that they spent time at business establishments (restaurants, bars, gym/fitness centers, salon/barbershops) and at mass gatherings 14 days prior to the onset of COVID-19 symptoms.

It is important to note that due to the recent number of cases, the department is prioritizing case investigations to prevent outbreak. In addition to the need for people to answer the call, the significant number of cases helps contribute to the low percentages in case investigation data. All of this reinforces the need for Pennsylvanians to take steps to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

Of the 46,041 cases reported between January 10-16 and excluding Philadelphia County residents and those who answered the digital case investigation, 6.8 percent (3,138) provided an answer to the question as to whether they spent time at a business establishment.

Of those who did provide an answer, 0.5 percent, or 218, answered yes, they visited a business establishment 14 days prior to onset of symptoms:
  • 30 percent (66) of those who said yes reported going to a restaurant;
  • 44 percent (96) of those who said yes reported going to some other business establishment;
  • 12 percent (26) of those who said yes reported going to a bar;
  • 10 percent (21) of those who said yes reported going to a gym/fitness center; and
  • 11 percent (23) of those who said yes reported going to a salon/barbershop.

Of the 46,041 cases, 6.9 percent (3,153) answered the question as to whether they attended a mass gathering or other large event. Of the 6.8 percent of cases, 6.9 percent (218) answered yes to whether they attended a mass gathering or other large event 14 days prior to onset of symptoms.

Compared to data https://www.governor.pa.gov/newsroom/pennsylvan...">reported on January 19, this week's data saw an increase for people who reported going to the gym (10 percent vs. 4 percent last week).The data saw a decrease for people who reported going to a restaurant (30 percent vs. 34 percent last week) and going to the bar (12 percent vs. 16 percent last week).

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The number of those who reported going to some other business remained the same compared to last week (44 percent vs. 44 percent last week) and going to a salon/barbershop (11 percent vs. 15 percent last week).

The number of those who attended a mass gathering or other large event decreased to 6.9 percent from 7.4 percent compared to last week.

In addition to the traditional case investigation, the Department of Health launched the new Connect & Protect Form as a means to complete a digital case investigation. During the week of January 10-16, there were 667 forms completed and returned. Of the 98 percent, or 656, who answered whether they spent time at any business establishment two days before symptom onset or positive collection date if asymptomatic, 8.3 percent, or 56 individuals, individuals answered yes:
  • 61 percent (34) of those who said yes reported going to a restaurant;
  • 5 percent (3) of those who said yes reported going to some other business establishment;
  • 9 percent (5) of those who said yes reported going to a bar;
  • 21 percent (12) of those who said yes reported going to a gym/fitness center; and
  • 7 percent (4) of those who said yes reported going to a salon/barbershop.

The numbers above highlight business settings and mass gatherings as possible sites for transmission. It is important to note that currently Pennsylvania is experiencing widespread community transmission. With less than 10 percent of those asked about what types of businesses they visited or if they attended a mass gathering responding to the question, the department is again reminding Pennsylvanians that it is essential that they answer the phone when case investigators call and to provide full and complete information to these clinical professionals.

Travel Recommendations

In November, the Department of Health provided an updated travel order requiring anyone over the age of 11 who visits from another state to provide evidence of a negative COVID-19 test or place themselves in a travel quarantine for 14 days upon entering Pennsylvania. Travel quarantine guidance was changed to 10 days on Dec. 5 based on new CDC guidance.

This order does not apply to people who commute to and from another state for work or medical treatment, those who left the state for less than 24 hours, or those complying with a court order, including child custody.

It is important that people understand that this https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/Documents/Dise..." rel="nofollow">Order is in place to prevent the spread of COVID-19 in Pennsylvania. A concerning number of recent cases have been linked to travel, and if people are going to travel, we need them to take steps to protect themselves, their loved ones and their community, and that involves having either a negative test, or placing themselves in a quarantine.

Gov. Wolf continues to prioritize the health and safety of all Pennsylvanians through the COVID-19 pandemic. Pennsylvanians should continue to take actions to prevent the spread of COVID-19, regardless of in what county they live. This includes wearing a mask or face covering anytime they are in public. COVID-19 has been shown to spread easily in the air and contagious carriers can be asymptomatic. Pennsylvanians are encouraged to wash their hands, social distance, avoid gatherings and download COVID Alert PA.

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